5 CHARTS THAT EXPLAIN THE SUPPLY OF NEW APARTMENTS IN BRISBANE AND THAT FORECAST WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN:

KEEP YOUR EYE ON 2021...

That's the year much of the A$30 billion worth of infrastrucure and projects completes in Brisbane! 

Go to the bottom of this page to see the projects or click here

Follow the infrastructure... the Government tells you where the infrastructure is going. This means this means land values in areas that will benefit area go up. Substantially.

Here is the real estate cycle in action for you.

It is also the government telling you where to speculate with regard to the land value. They don’t say it that way, of course. You need to read between the lines.

Nick Behrens, Director, Queensland Economic Advocacy Solutions said this:

"Individually each of the projects is impressive but collectively they represent a once-in-a-generation level of investment coming on line within a narrow window of our city’s history. Over the next five years, Brisbane will experience investment in new major projects on a scale not seen even during Expo 88." i


The Mernda Rail Extension will change people’s lives for the better – creating work for thousands of people, and connecting one of Australia’s fastest growing communities to employment, education and the rest of Victoria.’

Yes, it will do this initially.

It also pushes along the cycle.

 The government uses taxpayer money to pay back the bank. The owners of the land take the gain.

Make sure you own some.

More debt, higher land value. So goes the cycle.

See the Brisbane projects unfold on line here

MAY 2019  BRIEFING: DEMAND/SUPPLY

Urbis’ Apartment Essentials details sales and supply data from five markets – Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and the Gold Coast.

New apartment sales drop to new low

With new stock coming in and sales experiencing speed bumps, national apartment sales, as a percentage of available stock surveyed, dropped to a new low of 7.7% in quarter four.

Clinton Ostwald, Director at Urbis, commented, “We’ve seen fluctuating results around the country. In many markets, buyers are soaking up the existing completed stock as the brakes have been put on new launches. While in other markets, new projects are still being launched to market, replenishing the supply and leading to steady sales.”

Sales rates have been dropping for the last two years, so it’s no surprise that 2018’s results were lacklustre in comparison to 2017. In Sydney, surveyed sold stock averaged 21% of available supply throughout each quarter in 2017, whereas this dropped to 5.5% in 2018.

Melbourne and the Gold Coast followed in this same pattern with sales, as a percentage of available stock, dropping by around 4% over the same period. Brisbane and Perth, the markets that have had the least new stock enter the market, have reversed this trend and have seen slight increases in 2018.

New apartment stock replenishes slow sales

It’s not the stock crisis we imagined one year ago: lower levels of new stock entering the market has continued to replenish the slow sales throughout 2018, with 24,000 new apartments launching throughout the year.

The two biggest markets saw the most impressive figures; Melbourne blitzed all other markets with over 11,244 new apartments entering the market in 2018, while Sydney claimed second seed in the country with 4,810 new apartment launches.

Apartment approvals are at their lowest in the history of Urbis’ Apartment Essentials, sitting at 4,576 in quarter four 2018."

Clinton Ostwald

There was a surprising standstill in Brisbane with no new launches in the quarter.

Mr Ostwald said, “Apartment approvals are at their lowest in the history of Urbis’ Apartment Essentials, sitting at 4,576 in quarter four 2018. With new design specifications and planning requirements in some jurisdictions, we’re likely to see this number continue to fall in 2019.

“We need to keep an eye on supply levels as ongoing population growth, particularly on the east coast, will quickly take up available supply. This may result in a housing supply shortage in the next 12 to 18 months as we are also seeing fewer completions in the greenfield house and land market.”

Owner occupiers snapping up apartments

It truly was a year for owner occupiers, with 46% of total sales for 2018 attributed to this buyer type. Interstate investors leapt up by 10% in 2018, accounting for 19% of sales. Local state investors, who previously accounted for 30% of the market in 2017, dropped down to 17% in 2018, in line with foreign investors.

URBIS APARTMENT ESSENTIALS Q4 2018 SNAPSHOT

7.7% of the surveyed available stock was sold in the December quarter across the five markets:

  • Sydney (6% of available surveyed stock sold, 977 new apartments launched)
  • Melbourne (9% of available surveyed stock sold, 2781 new apartments launched)
  • Brisbane (9% of available surveyed stock sold, no new apartments launched)
  • Perth (9% of available surveyed stock sold, 464 new apartments launched)

National weighted average sale price recorded at $705,226 for Q4

  • Sydney – $899,793
  • Melbourne – $656,739
  • Brisbane – $831,884
  • Perth – $602,524
  • Gold Coast – $715,032

The most popular product type was two-bedroom, two-bathroom product at 47% of total sales. Across the cities the highest selling product types were:

  • Sydney – One-bedroom, one-bathroom apartments – 48%
  • Melbourne – Two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartments – 44%
  • Brisbane – Two-bedroom, two-bathroom 53%
  • Perth – Two-bedroom, two-bathroom – 41%
  • Gold Coast – Two-bedroom, two-bathroom – 66%

25% of actively selling apartments are in presales, 49% are under construction and 26% are recently built.

MAY 2018 BRIEFING: DEMAND/SUPPLY

Brisbane saw 3,012 apartments complete in in 2015 and 7,064 in 2016 with approx 7,500 completed in 2017.

The underlying demand for new apartment stock in inner Brisbane is estimated between 3,000 and 5,000 new apartments per year. So it can be clearly be seen some oversupply exists. 

However the cranes are starting to come down and not being replaced.

Apartment projects have been cancelled by the score as developers struggle with the bank financing laws for property developers, 

Due to a lack of new project launches, future apartments are shown by independent researcher URBIS to decrease to 5,691 apartments in 2018, reducing to 2,352 in 2019 and only 396 apartments expected in 2020.

If this scenario unfolds, it will coincide with the Sydney market peaking and Sydney investors flocking to Brisbane, all of which could put immense pressure on rental vacancy rates which would lead to rent increases.

Brisbane already offers investors among the highest rental returns in Australia at 5%,  further increases in rental would increase these returns further for investors, bringing even more investors into the market at a time of little quality supply, which could easily mean price rises.

The Brisbane market is expected to heat up with the upturn expected to run until 2026.

Finally, interstate migration into Queensland and overseas migration has started a strong upturn and employment is growing and the economy is on an upswing.  

Queensland in 2017 had the greatest annual inflow of residents from interstate of all states and territories and is at its highest level since December 2008. 

Tenants are also moving from older projects and apartments, or poorly designed ones, into the fantastic brand new projects and developments that are showing 100% occupancy rates within weeks of coming onto the rental market, and with strong rental yields to investors of over 5%.

 By as early as2019, the market will be a very different landscape with limited projects under construction and very limited new projects in pre-sales leading to an under-supply. 





2018 INVESTING IN BRISBANE REPORT