September 2018

 
Matusik Research shows that inner Brisbane is now struggling to keep up with the underlying demand.  

The recent oversupply of new apartments has been shortlived.  The main reasons for the quick ‘oversupply to undersupply’ reversal include growing demand to live downtown and the swift contraction of new apartment supply. 

Matusiks latest graph is shown below. Compare that to the forecasts predicted by URBIS in 2015 and you can see they are almost identical. In other words, in 2015 URBIS figures were already showing the potential in 2019 to 2020 to have a severe under supply of new apartments.  

Over half of the approved inner Brisbane apartment stock is unlikely to commence anytime soon.
 
Further good news is that inner Brisbane’s available apartment rental supply is now falling.  This contraction has been quite sharp.  Many of Queensland’s recent interstate migrants from Sydney are young couples trying to make a new start in Brisbane.  Many are mostly renting new inner city apartments.  

Feb. 2018

BRISBANE is well placed to take over as the nation’s best performing capital city housing market in the next five years

But while the city looks set to benefit from better housing market conditions, don’t expect house prices to reach the giddy heights they have in Sydney and Melbourne in the short term.

CoreLogic’s head of research and analytics, Tim Lawless, believes Brisbane’s property market could be a quiet achiever.

Mr Lawless believes the relative gap in pricing between Australia’s largest cities is likely to be one of the factors that attracts housing demand to Brisbane, as well as its affordability.

“At the end of November 2017, Sydney house values were 102 per cent higher than Brisbane’s and Melbourne values were 57 per cent higher,” he wrote recently.

“Based on median household incomes, Sydney households are earning only 12.9 per cent more than households in Brisbane and incomes across Melbourne are actually 0.7 per cent lower than Brisbane’s.

“This is also visible from more formal affordability measures such as the dwelling price to income ratio and the proportion of household income required to service a mortgage.”

Jan 2018: Brisbane will continue to rise at a moderate pace.

Brisbane is still seen as a highly attractive and affordable city relative to other capitals. Established houses will continue to see solid growth and good rent returns in suburbs that have good transport connections to the CBD, good amenities and growing populations. My overall price growth prediction for Brisbane – Circa 6%. (Source: Buyers Agent Rich Harvey)

Population flows towards employment opportunity

December 2017

In a graph ........ a great example of causation not just correlation.  Population flows towards employment opportunity.  Queensland today recorded both the strongest employment growth and highest net interstate migration gain since prior to the GFC.  

Nov. 2017  New apartment supply has almost stopped


Many of SEQld’s housing markets are now, and are likely to remain, in the upswing phase of the property cycle next year.  Some are in a downturn, but these deteriorating conditions are also likely to be mild.  The Brisbane apartment oversupply oversupply, we believe, will now be absorbed quickly.  The main reason being that new apartment supply has almost stopped. 
 
Another positive is that many areas across the south east corner of the state are growing faster, in terms of population growth, than forecast.  This is causing problems with infrastructure capacities and delivery, but is helping to underpin housing demand.  In most cases, this demand has also exceeded new housing supply, over the past five years.  (Source; Matusik Missive)  

 

Increasing Jobs, Migration & Housing Affordability Aligning to Spur Boom 

Image of South Bank BeachImage of South Bank Beach

A new report by CBRE Research has found that the fundamentals of an economic boom in Queensland are present and that all signs show that a growth spur could be around the corner.

The report finds that white-collar employment growth along with the house price differential between Brisbane and Sydney are two key variables that drive large waves of interstate migration to Queensland.What is most interesting about the findings is that in the last two decades, interstate migration peaked at just under 40,000 (people per year) in 2002.

At the time, the cost of housing in Brisbane cost just 43% the that of Sydney.Net Interstate Migration and the Cost of Housing

Net Interstate Migration and the Cost of Housing. Source: Australia ViewPoint – Sun rising in the sunshine state November 2017     

After  15 years and a growing price gap between Brisbane and Sydney, we have now reached that same percentage of 43% the cost of Sydney. Since 2014, interstate migration has again been on the rise and continues to increase to the same levels as before the GFC.  State final demand (SFD) in Queensland has also recorded its best performance since June 2013, increasing by 2.0% following the collapse of mining investment across Australia. Queensland’s more diversified economy has resulted in a stabilisation of state final demand compared with WA which is still heavily reliant on the mining sector for economic

growth.

State Final Demand – Rolling 4 Quarter % ChangeState Final Demand – Rolling 4 Quarter % Change. Source: Australia ViewPoint – Sun rising in the sunshine state November 2017

Affordability 

 Brisbane’s millennials are now starting to take advantage of the wide variety of affordable inner city apartments now on offer, most of which are located near major public transport infrastructure and lifestyle hubs. 

Jobs

The report also found that in 2016, Queensland was the second largest contributor to job growth in Australia with the public sector employment on a strong growth trajectory since 2014.

NAB’s Monthly Business Survey consistently shows that Queensland outperforms the national average when it comes to private sector confidence. According to the report, there is some translation of this confidence into investment, both public and private, particularly into the tourism sector which is expected to grow substantially over the next decade.

Major Projects

There is currently an estimated ~$30 billion worth of investment in projects across South East Queensland.

Brisbane Fast Emerging Out of Southern Shadow

Brisbane development projects which are now underwaySome of Brisbane's development projects which are now underway 

Significant social and economic change will propel Brisbane into Australia’s metropolitan major league with Sydney and Melbourne over the next decade, according to a report from Australian demographer Bernard Salt.

Imagining Brisbane in 2027 predicts the River City will experience a ‘transformative catch-up phase’ and join Sydney and Melbourne as one of Australia’s 21st Century business and cultural hubs.

“Brisbane is steadily and determinedly elbowing its way into the cosy coterie of the Sydney-Melbourne nexus,” Mr Salt said.“No longer will it seem that Sydney and Melbourne operate as the only portals through which the Australian economy connects with the rest of the world."

“THE SCALE, CULTURE AND LIFESTYLE THAT IS PRESENT IN SYDNEY AND MELBOURNE TODAY WILL BE INCREASINGLY ABSORBED WITHIN BRISBANE.

Brisbane’s step up to major city status will be driven by factors including significant population growth, immigration and the rise of the knowledge or tertiary-educated workforce, according to the report.

These gear shifts will transform the way people live and see the growth of knowledge worker communities around the CBD and within inner suburbs

Mr Salt said one of the major shifts in Brisbane’s evolution and growth would be increased residential density within 3km of the CBD.

“Brisbane’s inner urban footprint is ripe for residential density,” he said.

“These areas all offer access not just to CBD and CBD-fringe knowledge worker jobs but also to employment options in Australia’s leading health and education institutions.”


Major mixed-use projects such as the $800 million West Village at West End and the $3 billion Queen’s Wharf in the CBD are being developed to meet the increased demand for inner-city living as Brisbane embarks on its transformative decade.

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